Let’s be candid: can a Western-flavored rules-based international order led by the United States be revived? It seems really, really doubtful.
Think about the two hot wars currently going, on the outcomes of which will greatly impact those prospects.
The it’s-too-late-for-Ukraine-to-regain-its-1991-border-sovereignty school, which includes both Kissinger-esque Realpolitik types as well as Tucker Carlson, J.D. Vance, Mike Johnson and American Greatness yay-hoos, is currently holding sway in the debate on how to proceed. And, absent a degree of resolve that’s not to be found in the West, they have a point. Things are going badly on the ground.
The Biden administration is still, at this late date, wedded to the fantasy of a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinians. The pressure is on for Israel to hold off on invading Rafah. Yes, lots of Gaza residents who fled from the strip’s northern cities are bunched up in makeshift camps there, but let us keep in mind the fact that the majority of those residents (and an even bigger majority of Palestinians generally) support what Hamas did on October 7. They’re not huddled neutrals who just want a return to normalcy.
It’s the same kind of kumbaya indulgence that led John Kerry and Wendy Sherman, during the Obama administration, to put up with being humiliated by Iran at interminable meetings in Vienna and Geneva to get to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - and which spurs the Biden people (including Kerry and Sherman) to quixotically chase the wisp of a chance to return to that.
And speaking of Iran, its proxy aggression against the West (and I’m including Israel in that categorization) in the Red Sea continues apace. That’s because the West hasn’t effectively stopped them. We seem to look at attacks on our assets differently than we once did.
Let’s also mention the changes to the North Korean constitution explicitly naming South Korea as the country’s “primary foe” and self-identifying as a nuclear power.
And let’s also mention that these four powers are increasingly strengthening their ties. For instance, Putin has invited a delegation of representatives of Hamas, the PLO, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad to Moscow. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s October visit to North Korea reinforced those regimes’ mutual support.
Oh, and then there’s China, which has the world’s largest navy.
At home, we’re beset with a military recruiting crisis.
How about the diplomatic front? The State Department’s skewed priorities are increasingly on display, what with Antony Blinken’s internal memo instructing staffers to avoid “problematic” terms like “manpower” and “mother” or “father.”
I don’t know that I need to rehash the grim alternatives we face in selecting a commander-in-chief this fall. I’ve covered that territory amply here and in other venues. We are well aware that the choice is between a senile, progressive-placating incumbent and the most infantile, solipsistic, vindictive, rudderless and reckless figure to ever enter American politics. Neither of them have any kind of grasp on what actually defines the West, or what makes the West indispensable to a world where ordered liberty, dignity, reverence for a transcendent order, or common sense have any breathing room.
Bear all this in mind as 2024 continues to unfold. For the sake of your ability to sleep at night, though, you may not want to spend too much time envisioning the lay of the land on December 31.
“ Let’s be candid: can a Western-flavored rules-based international order led by the United States be revived? It seems really, really doubtful.”
Yes, but it takes will. We are spending the lowest on defense as a share of GDP since before WWII. If we cut back elsewhere in the government (do those other departments actually do anything?) we could double the defense budget, double the size of our Navy (if the demand is there, industry will follow and we won’t hear about the “hollowed-out industrial base”) and return to an era of American hegemony. A hegemony isn’t an empire, but instead dominance of the high-seas and an ability to ensure our interests are secure around the globe. As a side benefit the world enjoys free trade.
“ At home, we’re beset with a military recruiting crisis.”
1. Because we don’t pay enough
2. Because we have an obesity crisis and a good chunk of potential recruits can’t pass basic fitness tests
3. Because our military is anal about disqualifying people on the basis of imaginary health conditions (see Luther Abel’s discussion of this in National Review, although had my own experience with this on the civilian side of things)
All of these problems are solvable.
“ Bear all this in mind as 2024 continues to unfold. For the sake of your ability to sleep at night, though, you may not want to spend too much time envisioning the lay of the land on December 31.”
In the 1970s or the 1930s it looked even worse for America and things turned out alright in the end.