More obscene and perilous by the hour
Not content to dismantle the post-1945 order, the Very Stable Genius has to make a gaudy display of self-glorification to go about it - but the true "tough guys" know he's a mark
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The vacuuming of the red carpet.
Trump clapping as Putin approaches him.
The ride in The Beast.
The cancellation of the luncheon.
The murkiness of further steps.
After the campaign-trail pronouncements about ending Russia’s rape of Ukraine in one day, the 50-day ceasefire ultimatum, and the subsequently truncated 2-week deadline, we’re left with another dollop of inconclusive muck. Nothing is resolved, and Putin perceives a green light to press on with his restoration of the Russian empire.
This unsigned editorial in the Kyiv Independent is not the first pointing-up of the contrast between what happened in February in the Oval Office and what went down in Alaska yesterday, but I daresay it carries the most weight:
Trump greeted Putin with a red carpet, warm handshakes, a flyover of U.S. bombers, and a backseat limo ride.
The chummy display stood in stark contrast to Trump’s hostile reception of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office six months ago.
Ukraine’s president endured a public shaming. Russia’s was pampered. Both episodes were disgraceful.
Trump seemed to believe that a warm meeting could appease Putin and make a ceasefire more likely.
But there’s a lesson Trump still hasn’t learned: The Russian leader doesn’t really make deals — he takes. He takes what is offered to him, and then takes some more — he keeps taking until stopped by force. That is the Russian art of the deal.
Trump fails to grasp that Putin isn’t transactional about Ukraine — he is messianic. He wants Ukraine for Russia, period. For Putin and his inner circle, Ukraine’s independence is an accident, and they are correcting it.
The Russian delegation made no effort to hide their mockery of the talks. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Alaska wearing a USSR sweatshirt — bluntly asserting Russia’s claim on Ukraine. Kremlin journalists wrote about how they were served chicken Kyiv on the government plane to Alaska — a not-so-subtle hint that Ukraine was “cooked.” The Russians clearly never took the “peace talks” seriously.
And there was another reason behind Putin’s grin in Alaska.
The Russian dictator was gloating because of how unsettling the meeting was for all U.S. allies, far beyond Ukraine. It sent a discomfiting signal to the viewers across the pond. And strategically, undermining the transatlantic alliance is an even more important Russian objective than taking control of Ukraine.
Is anybody noticing that this is the second time we’ve been through this dog vomit?
The Very Stable Genius enthusiastically participated in three summits with Kim Jung-un in his first term. Beautiful letters, photo-ops, Abruptly turning a derisive nickname _ “Little Rocket Man” - into a gesture of affection, complete with a bequeathing of Elton John’s 1972 record.
And then - nada. North Korea continues to solidify its status as a nuclear power.
So why did Trump so decisively pull out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran? What was the difference?
Regarding Iran, the VSG didn’t - at least not yet, anyway - feel that his personal charm could be the deciding factor in that case. Of course, it hasn’t turned out to be the deciding factor in his relationships with Putin, Xi or Kim, either.
His aims in these cozying-up-to-rogue-actors situations is entirely personal. He wants to be seen as visionary, which was the same narcissistic motivation for Obama / Kerry / Sherman when they entered into the JCPOA. The difference is that the VSG really likes to get in there and schmooze. Obama handled it more at arms length, sending emissaries to the negotiations in Geneva and Vienna.
Trump hopes that the majority of the post-American people set great store by his assertions that he “gets along well” with this or that bloodthirsty tyrant. And they may well. But think about that. It greatly dilutes the power of treaties between nations, or agreements within international bodies. Everything becomes dependent on the compatibility of the leaders at any time.
If the post-American majority does trust this personal-affinity factor (and I have my doubts), it may want to think again, given that approach’s dismal record to date.
And the transactional angle has shown up in this current situation. Much like the vision for Gaza that made him so giddy a few months ago, to the point of releasing an AI-generated video depicting gleaming high-rise hotels, a VSG statue towering over a boulevard, a father and son walking into a sunlit future, and other vomit-inducing features, Trump has been speaking of “oceanfront property” in Ukraine and its potential value. The mineral deals, both those done and those being discussed, are pure hard-nosed negotiations.
The above Kyiv Independent excerpt mentions “how unsettling the meeting was for all U.S. allies, far beyond Ukraine.” Indeed. India is quickly rethinking the effort it’s put into building a constructive relationship with the US, and that is part of this global fabric of wariness:
Trump’s return to the White House has complicated each of the assumptions New Delhi held. Instead of girding itself for great-power competition, the White House is scouring the world for short-term gains. Through that lens, Washington has much more to gain from China than it does from India; the war in Ukraine must end because supporting Ukraine is not worth American taxpayers’ money; and Europe’s problems with Russia are Europe’s problems, not those of the United States. In such a worldview, India’s geopolitical profile invvariably shrinks.
Take the issue of the hour: the soaring tariff rate that Trump has imposed on India. Indian governments have traditionally maintained a high tariff structure to protect domestic manufacturing and agriculture, generate revenue, and manage trade balances. India has long justified these tariffs as essential for its developing economy, but the United States is unhappy about the persistent trade deficit in goods with India, agricultural subsidies that limit U.S. access to the Indian market, and India’s omnivorous geopolitical maneuvering, including its membership in the coalition of nonwestern countries known as BRICS and its continued reliance on Russian oil and defense equipment. Previous U.S. governments tended to overlook these infelicities, allowing India to liberalize its economy and decouple from Russia at its own pace. But this Trump administration is not so patient.
Washington’s revised approach to great-power competition has not only transformed its own policy toward New Delhi but has also influenced the choices and decisions of other major players—with significant implications for India. Russia, for instance, has sensed that Trump is far less committed to supporting Ukraine than was Biden, is less interested in the systemic challenge posed by China to the U.S.-led world order, and is reluctant to provide security commitments to allies in Europe and Asia. As Trump prepares for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, he seeks to punish India for buying Russian oil—a policy that the United States previously encouraged. With Trump in the White House, Russia has more options and needs India less.
This space is not the first to note that Trump takes a hard-nosed stance toward Western and West-friendly nations - tariffs, meetings - in contrast to his appeasement of thugs because of his man-crush on the thugs, his eternal quest to be universally recognized as an alpha male.
He can get really vulgar about it:
When U.S. President Donald Trump called Norway's finance minister last month to discuss tariffs, he also told him he wanted the Nobel Peace Prize, Norwegian business daily Dagens Naeringsliv reported on Thursday.
Several countries including Israel, Pakistan and Cambodia have nominated Trump for brokering peace agreements or ceasefires, and he has said he deserves the Norwegian-bestowed accolade that four White House predecessors received.
"Out of the blue, while Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg was walking down the street in Oslo, Donald Trump called," Dagens Naeringsliv reported, citing unnamed sources.
"He wanted the Nobel Prize - and to discuss tariffs."
In a comment to Reuters, Stoltenberg said the call was to discuss tariffs and economic cooperation ahead of Trump's call with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Stoere. "I will not go into further detail about the content of the conversation," he added.
Several White House officials, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were on the call, Stoltenberg added.
The White House and the Norwegian Nobel Committee did not reply to requests for comment.
He also struck that tone in his recent speech at the Kennedy Center:
The Kennedy Center Honors were established in 1978 and recipients have included George Balanchine, Warren Beatty, Aretha Franklin, Tom Hanks, Arthur Miller, Stephen Sondheim and Barbra Streisand. Trump remarked: “I wanted one. I was never able to get one.”
A group of Trump lackeys sitting stage left burst into laughter then realised he wasn’t joking and fell silent. “It’s true, actually. I would have taken it if they would have called me. I waited and waited and waited and I said: ‘To hell with it, I’ll become chairman and I’ll give myself an honour. Maybe next year we’ll honour Trump, OK?”
So nothing has changed in the Ukraine-Russia situation. Russia will continue to pound Ukraine with drones and missiles, and advance on the ground in the east. Europe will increasingly doubt that the US is going to step up and provide Ukraine the support it actually needs to grab Russia by the gonads and drag it to the table for a surrender. Western and West-friendly allies - the above-mentioned India, the “nasty to deal with” Canadians, Pacific rim nations - will plan their futures without the inclusion of the US.
And the gains in international comity over the last four centuries are likely to be replaced by a return to a spoils-system carving up of the globe into spheres of influence among leaders with no character, no humanity, no core principles, and no sense of the transcendent.
If you think this is hyperbole, I’d be interested in what makes for your confidence that the post-1945 rules-based order can get back on track.