The temperature of the world stage in December 2024
A look at very recent developments in South Korea, Romania, France, Ukraine and Syria - and the regions in which each is situated
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It’s been a lively week, has it not?
South Korea is reeling from the most significant threat to its constitutional representative democracy in 40 years:
Yoon's martial law declaration on Tuesday plunged Asia's fourth-largest economy and a key U.S. military ally into its greatest political crisis in decades, threatening to shatter South Korea's reputation as a democratic success story.
The leader of Yoon's People Power Party, Han Dong-hoon, told a press conference alongside the prime minister on Sunday that Yoon would not be involved in foreign and other state affairs before his early resignation.
But National Assembly speaker Woo Won-shik said it was unconstitutional to delegate presidential authority to the prime minister and the ruling party without impeachment. Woo proposed a meeting of rival parties to discuss ways to suspend Yoon's presidential power immediately.
The main opposition Democratic Party called for the immediate suspension of Yoon’s presidential duties and for stripping him of authority to control the military. The DP called for the arrest of Yoon and related military officials implicated in the martial law fiasco.
Here’s the part that’s worrisome to the West: While Yoon indeed demonstrated a Nixonian level of paranoia about pro-North sentiment among his political opposition, the truth is that that opposition is not inclined to deal with the Kim regime with the same kind of clear-eyed understanding as the coalition led by the People Power Party has. And at a time when North Korea is supplying soldiers and shells to Russia in its ongoing savaging of Ukraine and otherwise indulging in its characteristic belligerence, realistic perspective matters.
I can’t claim to know exactly which interested parties have the better take on what’s going on in Romania, but Russia-inclined (and Ukraine-disinclined) presidential candidate Georgescu has been knocked back to square one in his quest for the office:
Romania’s defiant far-right presidential candidate Calin Georgescu on Sunday stood outside a closed polling station to denounce a top court’s unprecedented decision to annul the first round of the vote in which he emerged as frontrunner.
The Constitutional Court on Friday canceled the election after a trove of declassified intelligence alleged Russia organized a sprawling campaign across social media to promote Georgescu.
“Today is Constitution Day and there is nothing constitutional in Romania anymore. I am here in the name of democracy,” Georgescu, 62, he told media in Mogosoaia, outside Bucharest. “By canceling democracy, our very freedom is canceled.”
The court cited the illegal use of digital technologies including artificial intelligence, as well as undeclared sources of funding. Without naming Georgescu, the court said one candidate received “preferential treatment" on social media platforms, distorting voters’ expressed will.
Despite being a huge outsider who declared zero campaign spending, Georgescu topped the polls in the first round on Nov. 24, and was due on Sunday to face reformist Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union party in a runoff.
Thirteen candidates ran in the first round presidential race in the European Union and NATO member country, the aftermath of which was gripped by myriad controversies including a recount of the vote ordered by the same court.
New dates will be set to rerun the presidential vote from scratch.
Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said in a statement marking Constitution Day on Sunday that “we find ourselves in a moment of profound responsibility towards the values that characterize us as a nation.”
“The Romanian Constitution defines the framework within which the state and political life operate, serving as a shield against threats to democracy,” he said. “In turbulent times, state institutions are called upon to act with calm, wisdom and respect for the law, the Constitution and democracy.”
After Georgescu unexpectedly topped the polls in the first round, his success left many political observers wondering how most local surveys had placed him behind at least five other candidates before the vote.
What I don’t like is the way the Trumpist Right in post-America reflexively weighed with cries election-rigging. And not just yay-hoos, but people who at least at one point in their careers demonstrated some principles and therefore whom I, at one time, respected, such as Rod Dreher.
We should cheer for candidates in European elections who understand that, with regard to Ukraine, the goal should be the complete defeat of Russia and restoration of the 2014 borders. None of this “end the war” dog vomit.
Which is why, although Zelensky says he found his meeting with Trump and Macron encouraging, to do so requires some glossing over of Trump’s continuing “end the war” framing:
President Volodymyr Zelensky met with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris for a trilateral meeting on Dec. 7, as world leaders visited France for the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral.
The three leaders reportedly spoke for about 35 minute at the Elysee Palace. Zelensky praised the meeting as "productive and meaningful" in a post on social media.
"President Trump is, as always, resolute," Zelensky said. "I thank him. I also extend my gratitude to Emmanuel (Macron) for organizing this important meeting."
The three leaders "spoke about our people, the situation on the ground, and a just peace," Zelensky said, without providing further details.
The previously unannounced meeting comes ahead of Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20. It also marks the first in-person encounter between Zelensky and Trump since Trump won the U.S. presidential election in November.
While Trump has pledged to get the U.S. "out" of Russia's war and negotiate a quick peace deal, Ukrainian officials have urged the president-elect to maintain support and adopt a "peace through strength" approach in dealings with Russia — sentiments that Zelensky echoed in his statement following the meeting.
"Peace through strength is possible," Zelensky wrote. "We all want this war to end as soon as possible and in a just way."
After the meeting, Trump also took to social media, writing that "Zelensky and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness ... There should be an immediate ceasefire, and negotiations should begin."
“Make a deal.” “Immediate ceasefire.” I’m not encouraged by this. Ceasefires are worthless. They leave underlying problems unsolved, and new crises inevitably rise therefrom.
Speaking of France, Macron is up to his eyeballs in crisis:
STORY: French President Emmanuel Macron is facing a tricky political situation as he scrambles to find a new prime minister to lead France's unruly parliament.
After rejecting calls to quit, Macron promised to take action.
:: TF1
"We can't allow ourselves to be divided or to do nothing. That's why I'll name a prime minister in the coming days."
:: What is Macron doing?
Right now, Macron is in full damage-control.
His last prime minister, Michel Barnier, was ousted in a no-confidence vote over a controversial 2025 budget bill.
Frustrated by Barnier's belt-tightening measures, lawmakers pushed him out.
Macron now needs to figure out how to pass the budget bill that caused the crisis in the first place.
And name a new prime minister who'll last.
:: How is he going to do that?
Macron's best bet appears to lie with the Socialist Party.
Ironically, the Socialists were part of the push to oust Barnier.
But they've since signaled they might be willing to support another government.
If Macron can win their backing, it could give his new prime minister a buffer to fend off no-confidence threats from both Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and the hard-left France Unbowed.
In Syria, the big question in the wake of the Assad regime’s fall is just what this Hayat Tahrir al-Sham organization and its founder-leader are all about:
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, leader of the Islamist insurgent alliance that has captured swathes of Syria in a lightning offensive, is an extremist who has adopted a more moderate posture to try to achieve his goals.
At the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which is rooted in Syria’s branch of Al-Qaida, Jolani says the goal of his offensive is to overthrow president Bashar al-Assad’s rule.
“When we talk about objectives, the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal,” Jolani told CNN in an interview aired on Friday.
Jolani operated from the shadows for years. Now, he is in the limelight, giving interviews to the international media and appearing on the ground in Syria’s second city Aleppo after wresting it from government control for the first time in the country’s civil war.
He has over the years stopped sporting the turban worn by jihadists, often favouring military fatigues instead. On Wednesday, he wore a khaki shirt and trousers to visit Aleppo’s citadel, standing at the door of his white vehicle as he waved and moved through the crowds.
Since breaking ties with Al-Qaida in 2016, Jolani has sought to portray himself as a more moderate leader. But he is yet to quell suspicions among analysts and western governments that still class HTS as a terrorist organisation.
Syria, situated in the heart of the Middle East and therefore the territory across which Iran sends instruments of death to Hezbollah and Hamas, has a strategic importance that will be quite apparent in coming days and weeks, I’d guess. Will HTS stop the flow? Will other groups fight it to maintain the flow? Will Iran’s great-power pals get involved?
I will repeat what I’ve said on a few occasions: foreign policy may not rank high among post-American citizens’ concerns, but it is the most important thing on the nation’s plate.